According to Professor Sun Zhe, director of Tsinghua University’s Center for US-China Relations, the other two key issues are the recent meeting between President Obama and the Dalai Lama, and trade. The leading Chinese expert on US-China relations said that for the Chinese, the arms decision was a slap in the face after the goodwill generated by President Obama’s visit last year. “China expected different from President Obama, but many people believe he has changed his face. It is a shame as relations were strengthening in 2009,” he says.
 

IN JANUARY, THE WHITE HOUSE responded to Chinese criticism by saying it was simply fulfilling a deal negotiated by the Bush administration. The sale of Patriot missiles and Blackhawk helicopters omits F-16 jets as originally planned. Speaking in January, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she thought the strain would be brief and mild: “It [the relationship with China] doesn’t go off the rails when we have differences of opinions.”  

While a meeting between President Obama and the Dalai Lama, the Tibetan spiritual leader whom China accuses of being a separatist, added further pressure, it is the simmering trade issues that could cause more significant damage. Professor Sun believes that ahead of the mid-term US elections in November, some members of Congress and the media may target China on trade.
 

THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION has already placed extra tariffs on Chinese tires and antidumping duties on steel pipes. Further moves, argues Professor Sun, could escalate into a low-level trade war. In the long term, he is more positive on the developing partnership: “There is interdependence in economic and trade terms. The overall relationship is now one where if I hate you, I hurt myself.” 

He believes that talks and diplomacy will put the relationship back on track, though conflicts will inevitably arise as China continues to grow in economic strength and influence. 

“For example, in 10 years there will be more cars in China than in the US. With China also building up its air fleet, it is understandable it will want to secure its oil supply. This could mean establishing an overseas military base, which would open a whole new area of potential conflict with the United States.”