Though it is unclear if leaders will come to an agreement, the meeting is a key opportunity to address climate change, a problem that impacts the conditions of life on this planet – now and in the future.

As one of the four lead authors of RECIPE, a comprehensive pan-European analysis of decarbonization pathways for the global economy, I’d like to remind delegates and all others of the moral and economic imperative to strike an international agreement to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

Industrial nations are responsible for most of the man-made greenhouse gases deposited in the atmosphere, but it is the developing world which will suffer most from global warming. It is therefore primarily up to industrialized countries to avoid a further build-up of their carbon debt and to help poor countries finance their climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts.

Released last month, RECIPE (Report on Energy and Climate Policy in Europe) is a logical extension to the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published in 2007 and to the 2006 Stern Review by Lord Nicholas Stern, the former chief economist of the World Bank. RECIPE is groundbreaking because we used three different state-of-the-art, climate-energy-economy models to generate a set of consistent scenarios for low-carbon growth pathways.*

We demonstrate that atmospheric CO2 concentrations can be stabilized at 450 ppm at a moderate cost of 0.1 to 1.4% of gross world product (GWP). We also quantify the alternative – the business-as-usual scenario. If no effective measures are taken, unabated carbon emissions will raise atmospheric CO2 concentrations to 730–840 ppm by 2100. The global mean temperature will rise three to seven degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and trigger catastrophic impact on ecosystems and human settlements.

According to our research, the window of opportunity to start effective decarbonization toward the 450 ppm target is open until 2020 at the latest. We cannot afford to lose time, even against the backdrop of economic contraction. If all countries delay action until 2020, global stabilization costs will rise by at least 46%. Given this urgency, we focused research on the role of technologies in reducing carbon emissions as well as undertaking an analysis of vital priorities for four key polluting sectors: power-generation, transport, industrial and agriculture sectors.

Our results in these research areas represent the report’s biggest contribution to the discussion. I hope they further our scientific understanding of the economics of decarbonization and contribute to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC.

Where the Stern Review examined carbon-reduction efforts under the assumption that all technologies would be available and all parties would participate, RECIPE systematically assessed more realistic scenarios, such as limited participation and limited availability of technologies.

We highlight the technological areas in which policy makers, corporate leaders and other relevant stakeholders should focus their investment and research in the coming years. It is vital that the world community develops a broad portfolio of technological options to reach mitigation targets cost-efficiently and to hedge economic viability. Advances in areas of renewable energies, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and energy efficiency improvements would stimulate aggregate demand and increase the economy’s low-carbon growth potential.

We expect to see a large demand for wind and solar energy as well as for energy conversion technologies equipped with CCS. Additionally, there is a clear economic advantage for early movers if they succeed in establishing technology leadership in these growing markets. We strongly recommend demonstration projects for CCS, since they are critical for proving the viability of this crucial mitigation technology.

I would like to stress that a well-functioning international carbon market is a precondition for cost-effective climate stabilization. Governments must provide investors with clear and credible signals about future carbon market developments by reaching a comprehensive international agreement on climate change as a successor to the Kyoto Protocol.

Industrialized countries and emerging economies, particularly China and India, must participate in global efforts to halt climate change. Our report indicates that emission allocations that envisage a convergence of per capita emissions rights have a better chance of finding broad political support than other distribution methods. We must remember that the larger the number of regions that take early action, the lower the overall costs of climate stabilization. The European Union can capture a first-mover advantage and benefit economically from taking immediate action, even if other regions do not adopt climate policy targets until 2020.

* RECIPE is a joint research effort by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany together with research groups from Italy, France and the United Kingdom. It was funded by the World Wide Fund for Nature and Allianz.

Published by PROJECT M in November 2009

(Photo: Ulrich Dahl/Pressestelle TU Berlin)