A profound change will take place worldwide within the next 10 to 20 years that will enable us as consumers and as business people to save the world while saving money
Avoiding mass hunger in the future means global food production must double by 2050
There will be a "Turbulent Teens" period of social stress and identity seeking
Yet, even though the consequences may appear bleak, I am confident that profound change will take place worldwide within the next 10 to 20 years. This change will enable us as consumers and as business people to save the world while saving money.
The state of play is this: world population is growing fast, so the demand for clean water and energy will continue to mount. Avoiding mass hunger in the future means global food production must double by 2050. Yet, the rise in agricultural productivity will stress overworked arable lands and require herbicides and pesticides, which further mass extinction of pollinators and expand de-oxygenated marine “dead zones.” Our reliance on fossil fuels produces half of humankind’s greenhouse gas emissions, creates market volatility and, through dependence on oil-rich countries, adds to political instability throughout the world. And finally CO2 emissions need to be lowered dramatically – and soon – to avoid catastrophic climate change. In short, we have a parasitic relationship with our planet. As soon as possible, we must shift to a symbiotic one, that of mutual benefit, if we want to continue living on this earth.
YET, THE FUTURE need not be as bleak as many experts argue. The change toward a symbiotic relationship will happen soon enough for us to incorporate it into our business scenarios and still save the planet.
I find it highly probable that societies worldwide will soon experience a radical change. The first critical steps will occur from 2010 to 2020 with a significant surge of environmental awareness. This will lay the groundwork for a mass movement of new thinking that I expect to be translated into action in the following decade (2020 to 2030.) A central question will be how to factor natural resources, such as water and air, into the equation to ensure the true cost of production is reflected in the price of commodities?
As happened during the Industrial Revolution, the mindsets, ambitions and the general values that societies lived must change dramatically. In our new age, societies must come to understand that current methods of production and wealth accumulation cannot continue.
Now, the question is: how can we bring about this change of mentality? Take mobility, for instance. Worldwide CO2 emissions are largely a byproduct of the incredible amount of commodities and people we move around the planet every day. Obviously, we cannot revert to a world of limited mobility. Instead, we need to rethink mobility.
Much of today’s movement is caused by people compelled to meet each other. We can improve the engines we use, or, I think it may be more useful to develop communication technology further so as to provide virtual mobility. At a recent meeting in Davos, we met virtually with 100 academics from the University of Nagano.
We followed their meetings on screens, heard their speeches and interacted with them constantly from thousands of miles away. Factoring 16 kilograms of carbon per 100 kilometer of emissions for air travel, that virtual conference prevented 3,200 kilograms of CO2 from being emitted per person.
Of course, one can argue that ideas can travel virtually but not commodities. The solution is to think locally again. There is simply no need for roses to be imported from Kenya to the shops of central Europe, as they currently are. Food production can also be reorganized with a stronger focus on local production. We need to accept that certain goods will not be available in all parts of the world at all times. Awareness of such issues will grow as the pressure to change human behavior increases over the next decades.
In the end, people will agree to build a new lifestyle. But to achieve this all of us need to contribute. This includes companies whose businesses will be negatively affected by changing climate. For example, insurance companies can promote a society that understands the necessity of change by designing car insurance so special premiums make it attractive to drive less. As a result, the driver will have reduced costs and the insurer will reduce the payout risk.
The biggest profit, however, will be realized by our planet through a reduction in exhaust fumes. I am confident there are thousands of other ways to design such products in different sectors. And early movers could earn an enormous amount of goodwill and eventually generate new business by pioneering this shift.
As of now, our system is not built for these kinds of incentives, so it will be a major challenge to change. The result may be an intervening period of social stress and identity seeking, what I call the “Turbulent Teens.” But the simple fact is the world needs to be fundamentally different by 2050. It has to be if we are to live on the planet sustainably, harmoniously and productively. The year 2050 is not that far away. We have no time to waste. And if we can make the switch, we shall all profit from these changes.
Published by PROJECT M in November 2009
(Photos: Tyrone Turner/National Geographic Stock, Patrice de Villiers/gallerystock)